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V Annual International Macroeconomic Seminar

A delegation of the Embassy of Grenada composed of the Ambassador and the First Secretary, participated in the V International Macroeconomic Seminar

On November 23, the V International Macroeconomic Seminar “Can Coordinated Macroeconomic Policy Help to Avoid Trade Confrontations and Wars?”, Organized by the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) together with the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the Interstate Bank.

Welcoming words to the participants and guests of the seminar were addressed by the Member of the Board (Minister) of the EEC on integration and macroeconomics, Tatiana Valovaya and President of the Interstate Bank Igor Suvorov.

Igor Paunovich, head of the UNCTAD Globalization and Development Strategies Division, made a presentation on the trade and development report in 2018. He stressed that 10 years after the 2008 crisis, the situation in the global economy had not changed much. “Trade wars are a symptom of a deeper economic illness. Substantial changes are necessary in view of the redistribution of resources and capital to labor,” said Mr. Paunovich.

Gabriel Di Bella, Resident Representative of the IMF, presented the “Overview of Global Trends and the Economy of the Russian Federation – 2018”. He noted that the macroeconomic situation in Russia is now stable, but the country is subject to geopolitical pressure and that in the Russian Federation an economic growth of 1.5-1.8% is predicted for the year. The report also said that the current trade wars add tension to the markets, and if they are not stopped, this will be a significant blow to the entire global economy.

A video report from Bangkok heard a report from Mia Mikis, heads of the ESCAP Trade, Investment and Innovation Division. She spoke about trade and investment in the Asia-Pacific region in 2018. Mia Mikis said: “Russia and Kazakhstan received the most direct foreign investment in new projects among the states of Central and North Asia. They amounted to 7% and 3%, respectively, of all foreign direct investment in new projects in the Asia-Pacific region.”

Also, representatives of the UN Economic Commission for Africa – Shamnaaz Sufrah and Batanay Chikven made a video presentation on the presentation of the “African continental free trade zone”. They stressed that the integrated pan-African market will take effect from 2019 and this will attract large investments from outside the region and minimize migration flows.

Further reports were presented by Steward Lawson, EY Senior Advisor on servicing financial institutions and participation in government projects in Russia and the CIS, Violetta Tayar from the Institute of Latin American Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences and Art Franchek from the American Chamber of Commerce.

The general theme of the presentations was devoted to economic relations and trade policies of countries in the context of sanctions.

“The countries of Latin America did not join the sanctions imposed by the West against Russia in 2014-2016, which allowed to intensify trade, economic and investment cooperation with the region of Latin America. The anti-sanction policy has a limited policy; it is extremely difficult to protect oneself from financial and other consequences,” said Ms. Tayar.

Steward Lawson in his report noted that sanctions affect the cost structure, efficiency of banks and introduce uncertainty, and Art Franchek said that the commodity market began to decline and, as he suggests, this will be the most important issue at the next G20 meeting.

At the end of the seminar, a report was made by the Deputy Department of Macroeconomic Policy of the EEC S. Urustemova: “EAEU – Current macroeconomic trends and challenges.”

Mr. Urustemov said that the quality of macroeconomic policy is improving in the EAEU, there is an increase in the correlation of macroeconomic indicators, inflationary processes are being synchronized.

“In September 2018, for the first time since 2012, inflation in all countries of the EAEU was below the level established by the EAEU Treaty,” said Mr. Urustemov. He also highlighted the following risks for the EEU countries: the growth of protectionism, the tightening of the global financial market, the decline in world commodity prices, low long-term economic growth and other specific country risks.

The seminar participants, from among the academic circles, took an active part in the discussion of global issues of economy, trade, investment and development of countries.